Press release

Special Daily Brief on Ukraine Crisis: 13.02.2022

on 13.02.2022

As Ukraine faces a potential “imminent” Russian incursion, this brief examines relevant developments concerning the four most pertinent actors to the situation:

  • Ukraine
  • Russia
  • the West (NATO allies and the EU)
  • Central Europe

 

Ukraine appears to be engaging in a balancing act between patriotic fervor and ardent denialism in response to the potential looming threat. Patriotic demonstrations have attracted significant crowds in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, which is based only 40 kilometers from the Russian border. The sizeable turnout and defiant tone at the protests have, perhaps, surprised Moscow. Kharkiv is indeed nearly exclusively Russian-speaking and served as a theatre of pro-Russian rallies during the Maidan revolution in 2013-2014. At the same time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to divert attention from the crisis, as demonstrated by the recent launch of a programme giving smartphones to fully vaccinated seniors. Zelensky, who promised peace and prosperity during his election campaign, has come under scrutiny for ostensibly being too willing to make concessions to Moscow under the Minsk agreement.

Russia, for its part, continues to deny accusations that it intends to invade Ukraine. Moscow, however, launched a Black Sea naval blockade of Ukrainian ships and has maintained a force of 100 000 troops at combat readiness at the Russia-Ukraine border. Recent days have seen Moscow host daily visits with Western leaders including a five-hour meeting between French President Emmanuel Macron and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Although Macron expressed openness to Russian proposals to include representatives from the separatists regions of Donetsk and Luhansk as parties to the Minsk agreement, no major breakthrough emerged towards resolving the crisis.

The West, meanwhile, reacted to news of a possible Russian invasion by withdrawing non-essential personnel from Ukraine and sending troop reinforcements to NATO’s eastern flank countries. The United States, Norway, the Netherlands and Latvia are among an increasing number of countries that have announced evacuations and advised their citizens against travel to Ukraine. The US also disclosed that it would deploy an additional 3000 troops to Poland, adding to the 1700 US troops detached to Poland, 1000 to Romania and 300 to Germany last week. The UK has sent additional troop reinforcements to Poland and Estonia. Germany and France, respectively, have stationed a further 300 soldiers in Lithuania and 900 in Romania.

Central Europe, finally, is being redefined as part of the eastern flank – the region is coming to encompass the Baltic States, Poland, Slovakia, Romania and Hungary (all of which border Ukraine) and Bulgaria. While NATO has maintained a sizeable presence in Poland and the Baltic States since 2016 (following the Russian annexation of Crimea), this footprint is expanding to include Ukraine’s other neighbors and Bulgaria. Hungary, concerned about antagonizing Russia, will provide its own units and act as a framework country. NATO battle groups in Romania, Bulgaria and Slovakia will be led, respectively, by France, Italy (likely) and Czechia.

 

Authors

Policy Director, Future of Security Programme

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Authors

Policy Director, Future of Security Programme