In the latest issue of Judy Dempsey’s Strategic Europe blog at Carnegie Europe, a selection of 10 experts, including GLOBSEC Policy Institute`s Research Director Milan Nič, answer a new question on the foreign and security policy challenges shaping Europe’s role in the world.
Milan Nič, Reseach Director at the GLOBSEC Policy Institute
U.S. Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump will probably not kill European security but could seriously undermine it. And much more than that. Europe is not just one piece in the network of U.S.-led treaties and alliances that spans five continents and covers some 75 percent of the world’s economic output. Europe is the cornerstone of this network.
Trump is the perfect antithesis of the liberal order mind-set that has dominated the West in recent decades. He is the antiestablishment figure, business oriented, neo-isolationist, and against free trade. His approach is by definition populist and risk averse. Who can reasonably expect Trump as U.S. president to honor NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense commitment, especially if a new hybrid war provides plenty of excuses not to risk the lives of U.S. soldiers for Tallinn or Gdańsk?
Of course, Trumpism can be seen as a wider phenomenon, with France’s Marine Le Pen, the Netherlands’ Geert Wilders, and even some Central European sovereigntists on the rise. These populists pursue purely national logic, perceive the external world as a threat, and shun multilateralism. NATO and the EU will be the first victims if these leaders take charge.
All these reasons should make us Central and Eastern Europeans very worried. We can hope either that Trump will not be elected or that he will be more restrained and reasonable once in power. In Central Europe, we have no choice but to cooperate with any incoming U.S. administration, regardless of who resides in the White House.
You can read other contributions here.