Ukraine is Still Fighting With One Arm Tied Behind Its Back

"The light will win". The words spoken by a brave Ukrainian soldier during one of my visits to Ukraine. Today, Ukrainians are forced to live though widespread blackouts as Russia continues to target Ukraine’s energy grid. Air strikes destroy buildings, dreams and families. Ukraine’s fight against darkness is a fight for freedom. Our fight for freedom. Because Ukraine’s future lies within the European and Transatlantic family, embracing core values like democracy and the rule of law.

After Putin’s large-scale invasion, 2,5 years ago, Ukraine’s partners had the collective courage not to be bystanders. Ukraine’s fight for the future of their country is a fight for the future of Europe. In the strong conviction that not acting will only fuelPutin’s belligerence and will encourage him and others to wage illegal wars, to annex territories that are not theirs, to subvert the rules-based world order in favour of a world in which might makes right. A warning voiced by many Central and Eastern European friends long before the 24th of February 2022. A warning we should have listened to earlier, a lesson echoed at the GLOBSEC Forum in Prague earlier this month. After the wake-up call on that night in February, a united response followed. As long as it takes, whatever it takes. Because Europe’s freedom is at stake.

Today, we have to come to the painful conclusion that the status quo is not enough. We must do more. An increase of military support and lifting restrictions is the only way ahead. Ukraine cannot be left to just continue the fight, it needs to win.

In a daring attempt to regain the initiative and to complicate matters for Moscow, Ukrainian troops invaded the invader. After previous surprise counter-offensives the incursion of the Kursk region shows us again that Ukraine is capable of surprising Russia with well-planned, large-scale, effective operations. It reinforces my conviction that Ukraine can win this war, given the right support. Meanwhile, Russia’s attacks on Ukraine have continued relentlessly. Recently, Ukraine faced the heaviest bombardments to date, its defences are stretched and its air defence is constantly being challenged and depleted. These developments also put the Western strategy to the test. And so do the violations of neighboring countries airspace including NATO allies Poland, Romania and Latvia.

There is no room for complacency. We know that carrying on along the current track is simply not enough. Earlier this year, while Russia relied on steady supplies of Iranian drones and North Korean missiles, Western weapon supplies were held hostage by national politics, limiting the speed of deliveries and endangering the backfill of ammunition and spare parts. Speed is and will remain a matter of life and death. However today, Ukraine still is fighting with one arm tied behind its back because of the restrictions on the delivery and use of long-range missiles.

Russian sabotage operations across Europe, Russian hackers trying to disrupt military aid to Ukraine, these are but a few examples of what our intelligence services warn us against. In many countries, including my own, Kremlin propaganda and disinformation enter the public debate, often facilitated by extremist politicians cynically and simplistically declaring war fatigue and opposing weapon supplies. Countering these often coordinated attacks on our democracies must be our joint mission.

The clock is ticking, not only for Ukraine. Europe must re-learn deterrence. Take more responsibility for the security of its own people. To put it simply: we must become “Kriegstüchtig”, as they say in Germany. Ready for war.

To prolong peace, to strengthen the Alliance.

The first step is more and more effective spending in our armed forces. We need to replenish our stocks: ammunition, fuel, equipment. This can only be achieved with a strong European defence industry. Defence firms need full access to financing and funding. Joint procurement will create economies of scale and tackle the persistent fragmentation. We must focus on scaling up at speed. Increasing and expanding production at existing sites, investing heavily in new technologies and innovation. The timely Draghi report urges the European Union to move forward with a strong call for action and the necessary homework.

Convergence will make Europe stronger. Using the same standards and refraining from national red tape or gold-plating, will make our armed forces better equipped and fit to fight together. NATO is and remains the cornerstone of our collective security. Our common task is to coordinate and complement NATO and EU strategy, such that 1+1=3.

We will need to use the feedback loop offered by the Ukrainian armed forces to create a strong and innovative ecosystem of modus operandi, industries and capabilities. The battlefield in Ukraine demonstrates that fast learning and adapting to new technology in the military domain will save lives. A European sky shield or iron dome will be critical to deter and to defend European territory, infrastructure and citizens. We must connect the different initiatives and strategic domains – including space – to make our joint integrated defence capabilities future proof. Citing the Mission Letters of the High Representative-designate and Commissioner-designate for Defence and Space: ‘we must strengthen Europe’s capacity to act’ and ‘spend more, spend better, spend European’.

These are logical steps to take. But the reality is: they will require hard work, creativity, innovation, political capital and political will. "World peace cannot be safeguarded without the making of creative efforts proportionate to the dangers which threaten it", states the opening of the Schuman Declaration, 9 May 1950.

Let the courage and perseverance of the people of Ukraine be an inspiration. The challenges we face are formidable, but so is our united will to create a more secure future. Let’s make sure Europe can continue to deliver peace and stability, and that it remains an aspiration for all.

The light will win, if we act, now.

The author, Kajsa Ollongren, was minister of Defence of the Netherlands from January 2022 to July 2024.