Ukrainian Economy at War: State of Play and Pathways Towards Recovery

By Zoriana Mishchuk, Yaroslav Zhalilo, Iryna Kosse, Roman Vlasenko, Andrii Chubyk.

Ukraine successfully coped with the first shock after the large-scale invasion of Russia. As the war continues, the policy of resistance should extend to organizing the full-fledged everyday functioning and resilience of the economy and society in the conditions of a long-lasting war. The continuity of national production in the medium- and long run provides the foundation for a resilient economy that is capable to ground out a military victory and ensure adequate conditions of life.

While the economic toll of the war will continue to rise, it is important to consider the key development tracks in macroeconomic and human dimensions along which Ukraine will be able to maintain its resilience during the war and succeed in post-war recovery.

In the medium and long run, recovery should be tied to systemic changes bringing the common vision of Ukraine’s post-war future into reality. Implementing post-war recovery plan, Ukraine will not be a passive recipient of external aid but an active contributor to the European post-war transformation. Using proper institutional mechanisms, the fulfillment of recovery tasks can advance Ukraine in the practical integration with EU, thus establishing the complementarity of the national and European identities.

The presented study aims to outline the dimensions of Ukraine’s resilience in wartime and post-war recovery period given the risks and challenges posed by the war and delineate the priorities and mechanisms aimed at overcoming these risks and arranging the postwar recovery process supported by a comprehensive international partnership.