Day 2 – Thursday, 27 August
Read the recap of Day 2 here
13:30 – 14:45 Trend: China’s Continued Rise vs America’s Relative Decline
China’s Belt and Road is far more than a series of infrastructure investments, it is a political-economic project that has far-reaching implications for the restructuring of world order around Chinese interests. It is a project that will likely span several decades into the future and bring with it immense changes to the structure of the global economy, especially as China continues to vie for primacy in global value chains. To some extent, the world must accommodate China’s desire to become a global superpower, and indeed may stand to benefit from it, but this raises important questions: To what extent is China’s Belt and Road project compatible with the existing liberal global order, and to what extent is it challenging it? What level of Chinese political and economic influence would be acceptable to the West? How has COVID–19 either benefited or detracted from China’s growing influence in global politics?
Opening chat with Hon. Kevin Rudd, President, Asia Society Policy Institute, New York
Interviewed by Bradley Jardine, Schwarzman Fellow, Wilson Center, Glasgow
Andrew Small, Senior Transatlantic Fellow, The German Marshall Fund of the United States, Berlin
Bradley Jardine, Schwarzman Fellow, Wilson Center, Glasgow
Zhang Lihua, Resident Scholar, Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, Beijing
Led by Alena Kudzko, Director, GLOBSEC Policy Institute, Bratislava
15:00 – 15:45 Trend: AI Will Enable A Sustainable Future
As the world faces climate change and loss of biodiversity, we need to make the most of emerging technologies to help us tackle this. AI and other novel digital approaches have the potential to decouple economic growth from rising carbon emissions and accelerate a market change towards clean energy. AI can be harnessed in a wide range of economic sectors to contribute to managing environmental impacts and climate change. Applications can include precision agriculture, sustainable supply chains, environmental monitoring, enhanced weather and disaster prediction and response. With the environmental applications for artificial intelligence broadening, how might AI influence economic growth and the global ambition to reduce emissions in years to come?
Inès Leonarduzzi, Chief Executive Officer, Digital for the Planet, Paris
Edward Zhou, Vice President of Global Government Affairs, Huawei, Shenzhen
Jacques Bughin, Founder and Chief Executive Officer MachaonAdvisory, Brussels
Led by Eline Chivot, Senior Policy Analyst, Center for Data Innovation, Brussels
16:00 – 16:45 Trend: Greater European Strategic Autonomy
The EU’s defence ambitions have been elevated amid increased great power competition and global instability. The emphasis on freedom of manoeuvring and strategic autonomy is driving the argument forward, as many see European defence cooperation as a key strategic objective in enhancing Europe’s geopolitical stance. However, this level of ambition has failed to be met by sufficient funding, with only 7.5bn Eur allocated to the new EDF flagship initiative and another 1.5bn Eur dedicated to military mobility in the new MFF. PESCO seems to be also under scrutiny, as more experts call for greater prioritisation. Key challenges about the EU-NATO defence cooperation, the UK’s participation in European defence capabilities, as well as the credibility of its operational dimension remain at the forefront of the EU’s defence strategy.
Gen. Claudio Graziano, Chairman, European Union Military Committee, Brussels
Nathalie Loiseau, Chair, Subcommittee on Security and Defence, European Parliament, Brussels
Carl Bildt, Co-Chair, European Council on Foreign Relations, Berlin
Gen. (Ret.) Knud Bartels, Former Chair, NATO Military Committee, Copenhagen
Led by Kai Küstner, Correspondent, ARD Broadcasting, Berlin
17:00 – 17:45Hot Topic: Update on Israel – UAE Relations
The normalisation of relations between UAE and Israel is a ground-breaking moment in Middle Eastern politics, paving the way for other Gulf countries to potentially follow. The question is to what extent this brokered agreement affords an opportunity for a reset with regards to the Gulf States and Israel and how it might impact the Palestinians unresolved territorial disputes with Israeli settlers in the West Bank. While the agreement has been widely celebrated as a success in Washington, the Palestinians have largely viewed the UAE’s decision as a sort of betrayal of their interests. It is also a potentially risky move on the part of Benjamin Netanyahu, who has recently relied on ultraconservative forces within Israel to hold onto his position as Israel’s Prime Minister. What ramifications will the deal have for Palestinian-Israeli Relations? How might it impact the geopolitics of the wider region? Which countries are likely to follow suit and what does the agreement mean for the countries involved?
Ebtesam Al-Ketbi, Founder and President, Emirates Policy Center, Abu Dhabi
Amos Yadlin, Executive Director, Institute for National Security Studies, Tel Aviv
Led by Sylvia Tiryaki, Associate Fellow, GLOBSEC, Bratislava
17:50 – 18:10 Hot Topic: Update on Lebanon
The Beirut Port explosion sent an already restless nation pouring into the streets to demand accountability and change. The tragedy killed more than 200 people and wounded thousands, leaving a city in ruin and a nation mourning. The explosion was caused, in large part, by widespread corruption, abuse of power, and decades of neglect. It came in the midst of a crippling economic crisis that had already left many Lebanese destitute and yearning for change. The uprisings that followed shook Lebanon’s political establishment to the core, leading to the resignation of Prime Minister Hassan Diab, and the promise of early elections and a change of government. It also reignited the debate in Lebanon about Hezbollah’s role and military power and involvement in regional conflicts. Given the country’s recent political deadlock, how likely is it that fresh elections will result in the formation of a government more attentive to the needs of its citizens? How should the international community respond to this crisis to help ensure a smooth transition of power and the resources the country needs to rebuild? How might the political fallout of the tragedy impact the region beyond Lebanon’s borders?
Ayman Mhanna, Executive Director, Samir Kassir Foundation, Beirut
Interviewed by Rym Momtaz, Contributor, POLITICO, Paris
18:15 – 19:00 Trend: Countering Terrorism in Virtual and Decentralised Space
In the past two decades, information technology has transformed our society. The internet, mobile phones, and social networking platforms have fundamentally changed the way states, groups and individuals interact. Governments have already had experiences dealing with security issues revolving around the darknet – an encrypted and anonymous space. But what lessons from tackling cybercrime are there to be learnt for the specific domain of cyber terrorism? What norms need to be created and how in order to do it transparently and with citizens’ consent? Understanding how these new technologies have and will shape terrorist organisations, their tactics and strategies is central to understanding the evolution of terrorism in the next decade.
Liisa Past, Chief National Cyber Risk Officer, National Security and Defence Coordination Unit at Government Office of the Republic of Estonia, Tallinn
Neil Walsh, Chief, Cybercrime, Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Financing of Terrorism. Department, United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Vienna
Hon. Michael Chertoff, Chairman & Co-Founder, The Chertoff Group, Washington, D.C.
Ali Soufan, Chairman & CEO, The Soufan Group, New York
Led by Kimberly Dozier, TIME Magazine Contributor & CNN Global Affairs Analyst, Washington, D.C.
19:00 – 19:03 Presentation of the CRAAFT project
A common effort between GLOBSEC, RUSI Europe, the ICCT and the University of Amsterdam project CRAAFT is an academic research and community-building initiative designed to build stronger, more coordinated counter-terrorist financing (CTF) capacity across the EU and in its neighbourhood. The project engages with authorities and private entities in order to promote cross-border connectivity and targeted research. The consortium’s research agenda focuses on lone-actor and small-cell terrorist financing, the impact of new payment and social media technologies on terrorist financing and CTF, the crime-terror nexus, smuggling of small arms and light weapons as a TF method, the ethical and political considerations of public-private partnerships, and CTF capacities of EU candidate countries.
Kinga Redlowska, Project Manager, Royal United Services Institute, Brussels
19:15 – 20:00 Trend: Automation Will Reshape the Workforce of Tomorrow
According to the Brookings Institute report from 2019, automation could disrupt 25% of the workforce — about 36 million jobs. AI, automation, and robotics will make the transformation of the workforce shift as significant as the mechanisation in prior generations of agriculture and manufacturing. While some jobs will be lost, and many others created, almost all will change. What implications do these changes have for policymakers in the EU and Central Europe, where the industrial fabric is making the region prone to be significantly affected by automation?
Nikolay Stoyanov, Policy Officer – Future of Work, DG Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion, European Commission, Brussels
Geertrui Mieke De Ketelaere, Program Director AI, Imec, Brussels
Pavel Mik, Manager of Robotics in Eastern Europe, ABB, Bratislava
David Timis, Outgoing Curator, Brussels Global Shapers Hub, Brussels
Led by Zuzana Pisoň, Research Fellow for Technology and Society Programme, GLOBSEC, Bratislava
Read the recap of Day 2 here