Russian War in Ukraine: Lessons Learned and Security Scenarios
On January 24th, GLOBSEC’s Ukrainian fellows Dmytro Tuzhanskyi, Maksak Hennadiy, Iuliia Osmolovska, and Roman Vlasenko, as well as former EU Ambassador to Ukraine Hugues Mingarelli, congregated in Brussels to share their perspectives on the current situation in Ukraine.
This panel discussion, hosted in cooperation with the Belgian NGO Promote Ukraine, presented GLOBSEC’s December 2022 study on the most probable future developments of the war in Ukraine. As the most likely scenarios, the speakers determined 1) global nuclear conflict with the involvement of the West and NATO (10% likelihood); 2) a protracted conflict with Russia’s gradual incapacity to fund its war (25% likelihood); or 3) a gradual defeat of Russia and a return to the pre-invasion borders (40% likelihood). The topic of Ukraine’s EU accession was also discussed, with the conclusion that Ukraine needs to implement the EU’s recommendations as fast as possible to kick-start the accession process. In the meantime, the EU should also be prepared for the need to deviate from its usual accession process in light of Ukraine’s situation.
Key takeaways from the discussion include:
- European countries and the EU should give Ukraine all the means necessary to reconquer Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia;
- All stakeholders should immediately start jointly working on the reconstruction project with the EU and the West;
- Support and promote President Zelensky’s 10-point peace plan and think ahead for possible negotiation scenarios with Russia.