Ukraine: Costs of Inaction and Benefits of Action

on 26.09.2023

As the costs of military, economic, and humanitarian help have become a part of political debates across Europe, we have decided to try to calculate the economic impact of our action, or support to Ukraine, and the impact of inaction in three basic war scenarios. After consulting leading European think tanks and experts, this report tries to shed light through analysis.

Among other things, the report:

  • Focuses on four neghboring EU countries of Ukraine: Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania;
  • Argues that the costs of our current military and economic support for Ukraine are substantially lower than the costs we will pay in the event of a Russian victory or a frozen conflict;
  • Provides insight as to how increased military expenditures, decreased foreign direct investments, and soaring debt burdens could push Central Europe into an economic abyss in the event of a Russian victory;
  • Analyzes the financial toll Central Europe could face in the event of Ukraine's defeat, with annual costs exceeding 25 billion euros for countries like Poland and equal to nine times the amount of support provided across the four analyzed countries;
  • Delves into the qualitative advantages of supporting Ukraine, from restoring European stability to deterring global aggressors, and explains why Central Europe's future is intertwined with Ukraine's fate.

Read more in the full report below.