GLOBSEC Trends 2024: CEE – A Brave New Region?

The GLOBSEC’s Centre for Democracy & Resilience introduces another round of its annual report based on opinion polling from across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), GLOBSEC Trends 2024. The eighth version covers 9 countries of the region: Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia, and provides fresh insights into how CEE views the EU, NATO, Russia, or China, to what extent it supports Ukraine, whether it is satisfied with democracy, or believes manipulative narratives.  

Since 2004, every five years has marked an opportunity for Transatlanticists and Unionists in CEE to celebrate the momentous accessions of their countries to the EU and NATO. The change of security environment triggered by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, however, has placed the 2024 commemorations against a starkly different backdrop, transforming membership in these two blocs into fundamental guarantees of safety and stability.  

This year’s GLOBSEC Trends report underscores that CEE societies broadly recognize the indispensability of the EU and NATO.  Public opinion in CEE strongly favours anchoring these countries—and Ukraine—in the transatlantic community. Societies are also demonstrably aware of who their allies are and the major threats they face amid a changing landscape. This sentiment has remained stable since 2022, which suggests its enduring potential in the years to come.  

Since 2004, every five years has also marked an opportunity for the CEE region to partake in the EU-wide democratic exercise via European Parliament elections, widely regarded as a celebration of democracy. While this process offers electorates a chance to shape the future of the 450-million-strong bloc, it also opens opportunities for the exploitation of democratic vulnerabilities and manipulative narratives propagated in election campaigns by extremist or nationalistic populist voices. The GLOBSEC Trends findings indicate that such vulnerabilities exist in each CEE country, varying in nature and scope. Amid the insecurities stoked by wars in Europe and elsewhere, along with the AI technology revolution, it is imperative for pro-democracy stakeholders to address these vulnerabilities systematically and comprehensively before other foreign or domestic actors do so by undermining democratic values and Transatlantic unity.  

The 2024 edition of this report provides further insight into where these key vulnerabilities lie, and which counter-narratives could work (or not) in addressing them.

Read more in the report below.